So, here we are again, back in another national lockdown. At least, we have the heart-warming news that an effective vaccine is now on the horizon. In the meantime, we’re stuck where we are, and this blog takes a look at the lessons we’ve learned from the first lockdown and, more importantly, how we can use those learnings to our advantage this time around.
Will panic buying be an issue again?
Panic buying was a huge feature of the first lockdown, particularly at the outset. It first became an issue for Retail during w/e 13 Mar, although initially this mainly just involved Toilet Tissue. In the following week, however, many other categories also soared as fear of the unknown started to creep in, and supermarkets were forced to apply rationing to certain items.
Foodservice experienced the opposite trend to Retail during March with sales starting to dwindle even before the official lock-down was announced on 20 March. All non-essential businesses were forced to close their doors and place many of their staff on furlough.
Expect smaller spikes
This time around, we don’t expect to see panic purchasing on the same scale that occurred earlier in the year. The phenomenon of panic buying is largely driven by a fear of the unknown caused by emotions and uncertainty, potential scarcity of products and individual perception of the threat of the crisis.
Now that we have been dealing with the pandemic for some time, it is unlikely that people will feel the same anxiety as last time. Increases in sales for Retail, in certain categories, are still to be expected, but spikes are likely to be short-lived and much smaller in scale compared to March.
Ongoing problems for Foodservice
Most Foodservice sectors have been struggling throughout 2020, despite the temporary respite of the Government’s successful Eat Out To Help Out initiative.
Travel Foodservice is 64% down, Leisure and Recreation 63% down, Accommodation 53% down and Restaurants 50% down. The latest lockdown, and whatever follows, means the future of all these sectors remains uncertain.
Expert opinion
With England now in its second week of the new lockdown, Kirsty Harris-Clarke, Managing Director of SalesOut, offers her views on the effect this will have on the wholesale market: "Our unrivalled level of data insight means that, thanks to the first lockdown, we are in a perfect position to predict how consumers' buying behaviour will play out in lockdown 2. Of course, in these unprecedented times, there is some level of uncertainty, but we are keen to equip wholesalers with all the information they need to better prepare.”
“The public was so uneasy in March that an extra 42 million visits were made to supermarkets in just four days. This behaviour quickly flowed down to the convenience sector, with far more consumers than normal looking beyond the supermarket for essential items.”
Understanding the motivations
“While there will no doubt be panic buying in certain areas of the country for items in particular categories, this will be significantly more manageable this time around. The key to successful planning for wholesalers is knowing the emotional and logical motivations which drive these behaviours,” Kirsti continued.
“We found that after the initial weeks of the first lockdown, there were three logical motivations which drove consumer choices; shopping for dependents such as babies and pets, stocking up the store cupboard with long life items such as rice, dried pasta and canned foods and, thirdly, anything that facilitated good hand hygiene.”
Watch this space
To help you stay ahead of the game and fully armed with a good understanding of what the next few months might have in store, SalesOut will be reviewing data from the first week of the latest lockdown and reporting the findings very soon.
Having the correct data and insight at your fingertip enables you to make all your decisions with confidence rather than having to rely on guesswork.
For more detailed information on changing customer behaviour during the Covid crisis and what it means for wholesalers and retailers, please book a OneView Demo.
