In this report, you will find:
- Latest News & Government Messages
- How is Food To Go Performing
- Categories Performance
- Markets Sector Performance
- Range & Price
- Short Term Out Look For Food To Go
- Final Thoughts
Latest Media & Government Messages
- On Friday 10th July PM Boris Johnson told UK workers that they should go back to the office (Daily Mail).
- Various studies have looked at longer term possibility of a winter outbreak (13th July, BBC).
Food To Go Total Sector
- Food To Go volume has started to recover to January and February levels in the most recent weeks.
- Dept for Transport shows All motor vehicles travel is at 80% and Rail is still down at 20% vs 1st March.
- In the two charts below we can see from lock down period to date the coloration between travel and F2G volume in our sector.
F2G Total by category
- Soft Drinks (Drink Now) has made a good recovery to volumes of pre lock down. Weather will be a factor in the recent recovery, YOY Comparisons are still seeing lower volumes.
- The other 3 sectors are showing a slower volume recover
F2G Sectors Foodservice vs Retail
- As travel numbers increase we are seeing workplace and Quick Service bounce back the quickest in Food Service sector.
- Nearly all Retail Sectors are in growth and have either fully recovered or are in growth vs pre lock down.
Product Count F2G
- Product Count in all F2G categories have been on the rise since 2017. We can see that Covid-19 lockdown phase reduced counts significantly for Soft Drinks and Sandwiches mainly. Confectionery Singles did not see much of a reduction in or after the period.
Average Price of F2G
- Prices have continuously risen over the last 3 years this is mainly driven by the Sandwiches category. Sales Value has followed that same trend and risen, consumers where happy to trade up or pay more for the same. Volume over the 3 years has fallen faster than Value.
- The main driver of WSP rises are the Sandwiches category. Confectionery Singles is the only area to be flat across the 3 year time span.
Outlook for Food To Go
- If the F2G sector grows at the rate it has in the last 6 weeks we can assume a growth rate at an average of 17% vs 18/19 over the next 6 weeks
- With the Government statement for us to go back to the office/work in the short term, it is fair to say we should see the continued recover of the F2G market.
Closing thoughts
Short term –
- Volume looks like it could recover to pre lock down volumes driven by the factor of traffic and people start to go back to work.
- With recession and job losses comes poor consumer confidence along side peoples concern of contracting the virus, leading to a change in consumer behaviour to save money and scratch cook.
- This Sector will need to invest in Price, Range and New Ideas in the rights areas to find new footfall drivers for the sector.
Longer term –
- With Winter round the corner and still no signs of a vaccine, this category almost solely relies on us being on the go, time poor and impulsive, another lockdown phase would inevitably lead to a dip in volume.
- The sector will need to reacted quickly if not be mindful of the quick changing environment.
